Overproof
Investment Thesis · v1.0

A trillion-dollar category with a structural capital problem.

Misinformation distorted the narrative. Mandate restrictions locked out institutional capital. The gap between friends-and-family and growth equity left the most promising brands stranded at exactly the wrong moment. Overproof was built to operate in that gap.

CH · 01The Capital Gap

The hole in the beverage capital stack.

Friends-and-family capital gets a brand to proof of concept. Traditional growth equity rarely engages before $2M or more in revenue. The stretch in between — post-product-market fit, pre-scale — is where some of the best operators in the category run out of road.

They have proven demand, real distribution, and repeatable unit economics. They just can't access the capital to cross from traction to growth. Overproof invests at this inflection point.

We acquire meaningful minority positions at valuations that reflect the capital gap, not the brand's full potential. The return profile looks like early-stage. The de-risking looks like growth-stage. We get both.

FIG · CAPITAL AVAILABILITY BY REVENUE STAGEOVPF · OWNS THE GAP
F&F · <$500K
↑ THE GAP · $500K–$2M ↑
GROWTH EQUITY · $2M+
OVERPROOF
GAP · Conviction
0° / 200
CH · 02Misinformation

The narrative was wrong. The capital hasn't returned.

"Gen Z is abandoning alcohol." Institutional investors heard it enough times that it became received wisdom. The data tells a different story.

ADULT AVG · 77%74%
FIG. 01 · IWSR Bevtrac

Gen Z didn't quit drinking. They were delayed.

Legal-drinking-age Gen Z participation in alcohol rose from 46% in April 2023 to 74% by September 2025 — three points off the broader adult average. The "sober generation" was a pandemic-era delay in socialization, not a structural shift. The narrative was wrong. The capital it displaced has not yet returned.

APR 2023
46%
SEP 2025
74%
DELTA
+28 pts
"The idea that Gen Z LDA+ drinkers are somehow fundamentally different from other age groups isn't supported by the evidence."
— Richard Halstead, IWSR COO of Consumer Insights
DATA · Conviction
0° / 200
CH · 03The Exit Window

Acquisitions are abundant, early, and at SaaS-level multiples.

FIG. 02 · Park Street University

The exit window never closes.

~47 acquisitions per year on average, 2020–2025. Through pandemic, inflation, and rate hikes — the floor never fell out.

41
2020
33
2021
49
2022
52
2023
55
2024
52
2025
AVG · 47 DEALS / YR
EV / REVENUE
1.2 – 7.5×

Strategic spirits acquirers pay multiples that compare favorably to software — rarely available without category access.

EBITDA MULTIPLE
9.3 – 16.9×

Casamigos sold at ~$50M revenue. Olé Cocktails returned 15× in 36 months for our Managing Partner.

EXIT · Conviction
0° / 200
CH · 04Durable Through Every Cycle

Recession-resilient. Cyclically discounted. Structurally undervalued.

Goldman Sachs has determined that alcoholic beverage consumption is resilient during recession — beer and spirits are seen as affordable luxuries or staples. IWSR analysis of the four most recent US recessions shows premium tiers resume normal growth within a year of each downturn.

The current softness is cyclical, not structural. The category has been here before. It has recovered every time.

For a patient, early-stage investor with a five-to-seven-year horizon, validated brands during cyclical softness — when valuations reflect the pessimism of the moment, not the trajectory of the category — is precisely when the asymmetric return opportunity is at its widest.

Backed by operators · Built for founders

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